The CDC Is Publishing Unreliable Data on Gun Injuries. People Are Using It Anyway.

PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES For journalists, researchers and the general public, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention serves as an authoritative source of information about Americans’ health, including estimates of how many people are killed or injured by guns. The agency’s most recent figures include a worrying uptick: Between 2015 and 2016, the number of Americans nonfatally injured by a firearm jumped by 37 percent, rising from about 85,000 to more than 116,000. It was the largest single-year increase recorded in more than 15 years. But the gun injury estimate is one of several categories of CDC data flagged with an asterisk indicating that, according to the agency’s own standards , it should be treated as “unstable and potentially unreliable.” In fact, the agency’s 2016 estimate of gun injuries is more uncertain than nearly every other type of injury it tracks. Even its estimates of BB gun injuries are more reliable than its calculations for the number of Americans wounded by actual guns. An analysis performed by FiveThirtyEight and The Trace, a nonprofit news organization covering gun violence in America, 1 The Trace receives funding from several organizations, including Everytown for Gun Safety Support Fund, the 501(c)(3) associated with Everytown for Gun Safety, a group that promotes increased gun control measures. The president of The Trace’s board, John Feinblatt, is also the president of Everytown for Gun Safety. found that the CDC’s report of a steady increase in nonfatal gun injuries is out of step […]

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