‘This time, I predict Trump will lose’

'This time, I predict Trump will lose'

Reuters In 2016, Trump was the incumbent. In 2020, he’s the President. In the 1980s, historian Allan Lichtman teamed up with a Russian seismologist to develop a model for the prediction of US presidential elections. Over the past four decades, his system has accurately foretold the respective victors. Lichtman was one of the few forecasters who predicted the victory of Donald Trump in 2016. Your prediction is based on 13 factors – the so-called “ Keys to the White House ” which look at items such as economic and foreign policy performance, social unrest and scandals, as well as the charisma of the candidates. You completely ignore any current polls, opinions of pundits, major events, campaigning or TV debates. Why do you think is your method superior to the work of, for example, Gallup, RealClearPolitics or FiveThirtyEight? Well, as we know, all of those pollsters were wrong in 2016, whereas I was right in predicting the Trump win and sticking to it despite the enormous criticism. You can imagine predicting a Trump win in 90 per cent Democratic Washington D.C. did not make me very popular. So why are the pollsters and compilers of polls like Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight often wrong? Polls are not predictors, they’re snapshots. And those snapshots unpredictably change. Secondly, they don’t actually poll voters. They poll something called likely voters, which requires an estimate which leads to error. So when they tell you our error margin is plus or minus three percent, that’s pure […]

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